Is the South Going Blue?

As 2020 grows closer, warning signs for President Trump and the Democrats have appeared in the form of the southern state elections. Will either side heave these warnings?

The 2016 electoral college map showed a red south and red swing states.

270towin.com

The 2016 electoral college map showed a red south and red swing states.

Danny Buckwell and Lord Toussaint

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On November the fifth, there were local elections in four states, Kentucky, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Virginia. In Virginia, the entire legislator was up for re-election and in Kentucky, the governorship was up for grabs. In Mississippi, all positions were up for grabs, as well as in Louisiana.

In the state of Virginia, the previously Republican controlled legislator, now has a Democratic majority in both the state house of delegates, and the state senate.

The solid red state of Kentucky is apparently solid no more. The state seems to have elected (the result is disputed), a Democratic governor, named Andy Beshear, by a narrow margin of 5,086 votes.

In Mississippi, the governors race was closely contended by a democrat named Jim Hood and a republican named Tate Reeves.

In Louisiana, John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, won re-election against Eddie Rispone by 40,000 votes. Like Kentucky, Louisiana is a Republican state and as President Trump said, “It would look really bad for me to lose another race in a republican state like Kentucky.”

As the 2020 election draws closer, a crucial question must be asked “Is President Trump’s most reliable group of supporters shifting the other way?” Well…

As we all know, calling the American South, or at least parts of it, conservative, is an understatement. So, if you’re a Democrat in the south, except for Florida,  you will most likely either be a moderate or lean conservative.

Southern democrats are different from the Democratic Party on a national level. In the past years, the Democratic Party has seen a divisive and decisive far leftist shift in its politics, policies, and philosophies. This movement has largely been spearheaded by America’s young people and has been defined by controversial policies such as health care for all, abortion, and the banning of semi automatic weapons.

Many southerners find these policies to go against what they believe in, their social norms, and their traditions. They resist these kinds of changes to their way of life, which is understandable, and of course, in order to win, southern Democrats must echo this sentiment of conservatism, and therefore go off on their own limb of the party. In other words, southern Democrats must lean conservative or go moderate in order to win an election in their state. If they were to follow what seems to be the new party norm of going to the extreme left, at best, the only parts of the southern states that would vote for them, would be the population centers, which almost universally lean Democratic nationally. This is why the only extreme you see a southern politician take to, unless your in Florida or the rest of the Atlantic cost, is extreme conservatism.

Of course, this norm has not changed in the past round of elections, and the democratic candidates that ran for office in these states were not like the rest of the Democrats nation wide. These instate southern Democrats don’t go for universal heath care or a turn in of all semiautomatic rifles. More importantly, many of the Democrats running against President Trump next year are for these policies, and are at the south’s opposite extreme.

The Democrats are calling next year’s election the most important and crucial in American history; this very well may be true. If the Democrats truly want to win this election, then their nominee must be as close to the political center as possible. The Democrats that won big in the south were all moderates and conservatives. Moderates that were strict on abortion and were pro gun rights. But they were still Democrats. If the Democrats believe that Trump truly is such a menace to society, then they must give up onsome issues and try to take from Trump’s political pie. Take the swing states he won last time and take from his Republican south, as they are doing now. Democrats nation wide, who are generally farther left leaning, will not vote for Trump by any means. That said, that does not necessarily mean that they will vote for a far lefter such as Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, the same goes for Democrats in the Southern and  Swing states.

If the Democrats really want to win, they cannot move to their extreme of the political spectrum. They must stay towards the center, or else, there will be a “moderate power vacuum” within the Democratic Party, and all of those swing votes and southern Democrat votes will be lost. And that loss will eminently result in president Trump’s victory……..

Again.

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