Why the ‘V’ Is Impossible

Why President Trump's "V-Shaped" recovery may not happen.

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The New York Post

The Dowon March 14, 2020

Lord Toussaint, Chief CSN Political and History Correspondent

President Trump and many others in his ‘entourage’ like to say that there will be a “v-shaped” economic recovery. That after this pandemic subsides the economic might of America will be swiftly and or immediately restored. That fantasy,  seems less and less likely, as was proven by the quarter one GDP growth summary. Which told of a 4.8 percent contraction of GDP…  Despite what the soaring stock market may indicate, the back bone of our economy is not healthy and the ‘v shaped’ recovery will not happen for many reasons. But chief among them is the most basic of human physiology.

Humans are selfish and self-preserving creatures. They are therefore scared of anything that may lessen their chances of survival. They are ‘prudent.’ When cases begin to lessen and business begin to open up, people will be reluctant to go to packed restaurants, shopping malls, clubs, or movie theaters. Which means they will not be able to spend their money. It is something as simple and imperturbable as human nature that will under mind this prospect.

Furthermore, there will be no ‘magic date’ when all is well, and all will go outside. This is a country of three hundred and thirty million spread across millions of square miles of land. It will take time for the country to open up fully and for domestic supply chains to re-establish themselves. That’s right, that isn’t even taking into consideration international supply chains.

Certain areas of the country will open up at different times. After all, the apex will hit at different times in different places. President Trump seems to forget that it is not he who has the authority to mandate such re-openings. That power lies at the local and state level.

Ah yes, the cons of federalism…

So simply put, it doesn’t matter how much money the federal government attempts to shovel out to the people of this country now or then. In the hopes that it may ‘stimulate’ a quick surge in the economy through increased consumer spending. But again, it won’t.

It may help Americans make ends meet for the essentials, but it will not result in ‘people putting their money back into the economy.’ Why? Well its yet two simple aspect of the physiology. Vanity and fear.

Again, ninety nine percent of America’s firms are ‘small businesses.’ In a capitalist society, small businesses are often geared toward providing nonessential commodities. Commodities which are made trivial amidst a pandemic. So therefore, the money most Americans receive will be spent on either paying the bills or put end up in savings accounts if the recipients can afford it. Not on buying the luxuries of life or on eating out.

That’s also because when one is behind closed doors, there really isn’t anyone to impress. The pressures of conforming to the unwritten rules of society are made less important. The only people one finds themselves with are family. There aren’t co-workers to wow with your dapper suite, your elegant dress, your neat new haircut, your youthful highlights, or your ‘flawless’ skin. Just the people that you share every aspect of life on a daily basis with. Whether deliberately of accidentally.

Although we may not like to admit it, we are vain. We do care about bettering people’s perception of us. Such perception matters far less when you are tucked away from view the view of others. All that matters are the essentials of self-preservation and as the spending there goes up the spending on perception goes down.

It begs yet another question, how will COVID impact people’s vanity?…

Even after the Pandemic people will want to pinch their pennies more tightly and think twice before they buy their luxuries again. After the last major financial slow down from 2017-9 rates of saving went up. Rates of saving always go up after such a slow. Well, that’s because of fear.

After all, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

It had been over a decade since the last major recession, maybe people needed a reminder. With all the boasting of the president maybe they had forgotten the importance of saving and thinking. After all, wage growth hasn’t been all that pronounced under Trump. Maybe it’s the constant rants of economic power that have fueled the record highs and not a pronounced increase in people’s disposable income…

We’ll see if this claim is warranted, but after all, it is only natural for humans to forget…

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